Minneapolis' Recent Election Explained

Well that just happened.

There of course is a lot to unpack in what can only describe as Minneapolis's most important election in decades. And having lived through those days of "fire and fury" I have a lot of opinions. But in the sprit of Julia Azari's excellent recap of what happened in Virginia, I'll go with four big points:

Jacob Frey Is The Come Back Kid

If you had asked me is early July of 2020 what mayor Jacob Frey's political future was I would have told you that it was quite likely he wouldn't seek reelection, if only because there's no way he could win. Indeed I thought there was a decent chance he would resign as he seemed at times to have taken things on a personal level.

But what a difference a year and a half can make! 

We seemed to have witnessed one of the biggest political comebacks, since, I dunno, Richard Nixon? To be fair a lot of things broke in Frey's favor. For reasons that remain unclear he never attracted a big competitor and thus his main opponents where a community activist who had never held elected office and a former state legislator who used to represent a suburb of St. Paul.

Likewise his opponents focused on what I saw as a bizarre strategy of not coordinating around a specific alternative candidate, and instead just urging people to vote for anyone but Frey. At first glance it might seem to make sense as Minneapolis has a nonpartisan "top three" ranked choice voting system...but in reality refusing to coordinate around a specific alternative to a incumbent is a pretty poor strategy. As Rick Flair would say "to be the man, you have to beat the man." That is to say you can't just Tweet #dontrankFrey and hope for the best. Or rather you can do that, but I wouldn't expect it work.

Urban Politics Often Isn't About Ideology

It's popular in commentary about Minneapolis politics to discuss conflicts in terms of ideology. So Frey is described as a "centrist" or "on the right" when in reality in the broader context of American politics he's a ridiculously flaming liberal. Likewise Axios Twin Cities tried to make some sense of this with a helpful map about the five incumbents that lost reelection on the city council, and it sort of works. But not really. Is Jason Chavez really more "to the left" than Alondra Cano was? Than Gary Schiff was? At a certain point it's arguing about how many angles can dance on the head of a pin.

I'd argue that the real dividing line in Minneapolis politics was over Frey and the Question Two amendment. To over simplify: after George Floyd was murdered and the riots happened Minneapolis politics became polarized around the idea that Jacob Frey was the problem and had to go, and those who opposed getting rid of him for whatever reason. It also polarized around the idea that the MPD was the problem and it had to go, and those who opposed this idea for whatever reason. 

In short, this isn't a story about who's on the "left" and "right" and who's a "progressive" or a "centrist" but rather specific positions around those big questions.

Values Are Vague, Referenda Are Concrete

One theme of "the discourse" around the results is progressives announcing profound frustration with other progressives who ended up voting for Frey or voting down Question Two. This usually comes in terms of the idea that someone isn't "living their values." But the thing about values is they are vague. What does it mean to say "Black Lives Matter", to put a lawn sign in your yard stating such? That you support "dismantling" the police department and creating a whole new institutions from scratch? Or something else?

At the end of the day a voter in a referendum is being asked to make a specific choice ie "yes" or "no" to a specific question. In this case a specifically worded question that was written to leave the door open to "abolishing the police" (hence the use of "may" rather than "shall"). And a lot of voters, including many liberals with Black Lives Matter lawn signs decided, for whatever reason, to vote no.

To bring it back to lawn signs I remember seeing someone who had a "No Justice, No Peace!" sign AND and Frey sign. You might think that's crazy, I thought it was quite funny, but to this person those values aligned. 

Sometimes Activist Groups Aren't That Representative

A popular story about Minneapolis politics over the last year and a half is that of Jacob Frey as the out of touch white liberal being confronted by protestors furious (and rightly so!) about injustice (see this classic photo). And while there's some truth to this, it's also true that Frey's support among older black voters in North Minneapolis was a key part of his success, and those same voters were part of why Question Two was defeated as well.

It reminds me a bit about Elizabeth Warren who succeeded in winning the support of a number of black activist groups but could win over black voters. And I don't mean this a putdown about lefty activists groups, but just as a statement of reality. Just because a group claims to speak for folks, doesn't necessarily mean they actually do.