The news is so crazy right now it's hard to keep track of things, however one of the "yet another crazy thing that happened today" really caught my eye and I want to write a blog post about it before it rapidly disappears into the maelstrom of the never-ending-Trumpian-news-cycle.
Basically Representative Rashida Tlaib, who represents Detroit, went on something of a tirade at a progressive fundraiser about impeaching Trump and called him a "motherfucker" (please note I am not disputing the factual nature of this claim.) Everyone on Twitter spent all day talking about it but I think a lot of these takes miss important points.
For fun let's do this Q and A style:
Q: This seems like a really dumb thing to talk about. Okay that wasn't a question...but what's your response?
A: It is really dumb, in a world of shutdowns and trade wars and everything else there are much more important things to talk about. Moreover it's dumb for the media to obsess over and also dumb to pretend that supporters of the president are actually outraged about this (Trump swears all the time.)
Q: So what's the point of this blog post?
A: Because while it is a dumb thing to obsess over, in some ways it was also (probably a) dumb thing for her to say.
Q: This seems pretty unfair on a number of levels, especially around gender. Male politicians swear all the time (see the president or Joe "big fucking deal" Biden), why is it bad for her but not for them?
A: Oh you're right politicians swear all the time, and I don't disagree around unfair gender norms at all, but the problem for Rep. Tlaib is that this sort of thing, while substantively is a nothing-burger, could hurt her "professional reputation" among other House members, not because of what she said about Trump, but what her remarks said about her.
Q: Go on...
A: In the House your professional reputation is a lot of what you have. Think of it as a place where you are always trying to size everyone else up, while being sized up in return. Is this person a straight shooter, or do they play fast and loose with the facts? Is this member actually knowledgeable about a given policy, or just pretending to be? Will this person have my back if my committee tangles with another, or will they hang me out to dry? That sort of thing.
Q: Is this person actually dangerous like Pelosi seems to be, or a push over? That sort of thing?
A: Exactly. In John Barry's classic book about then Speaker Jim Wright and the 100th Congress he has a line he keeps coming back to, "Everything said here matters, even the jokes." Why? Because...
Q: Jokes can be another form of conveying information?
A: Bingo.
Q: Okay this all makes sense, but I don't see why she was wrong to call Trump a "motherfucker."
A: Here's my point, when a new person comes to The Hill they kind of have to decide what sort of career they want, and if they are smart, base their choices around advancing that career. One career path is just being a advocate for your district who does what it takes to "bring home the bacon." Another is to specialize in a specific policy issues (say agriculture or Pell Grants) and work towards advancing it, often by working your way up on a committee. Another is being an "influencer" who works towards a leadership role in the future. Another is just to focus on reelection. And another is being the brash (one might say loud mouth) person who fights with the other side in a high profile way.
Q: Your point?
A: Well notice how what it takes to pursue these career paths all run up against each other. If you have the reputation of someone who just cares about your district or reelection it's harder to make allies for other work. To endear yourself to leadership you're going to raise tons of money, help other members get elected, and take unpopular votes, that's gonna hurt your chances for being known as someone who always gets money for your district's bridges. If you spend all day learning about changes to CREP it's hard to climb the ladder of power, or to develop the reputation of someone who can help you get reelected if you're in a tough race. You can of course try to balance these things to some degree but there are real trade offs.
Q: So you're saying if Rep. Tlaib spends her time calling people motherfuckers and makes major headlines, it's harder to pursue those other roles. I get that, but maybe she doesn't care about that and wants the partisan warrior role?
A: Oh sure maybe she does want that (hence the "probably" in the title), but it seems like she also wants to have influence with leadership in complex rules fights, while also wants to advance a really big policy agenda, and work on a lot of other stuff. The more time she spends trading insults with the president and calling for impeachment the harder it is to do that other stuff, like saying building the professional reputation of a possible future leader, or a policy wonk, or reliable negotiator with the White House for that matter. It's like a miniature version of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's comically short coup attempt against potential future speaker Hakeem Jeffries. You can go down that road, but trying to advance a policy agenda or get stuff for your district is quite hard when you've made long term enemies if your own party's leadership. Why should they help you? Everyone knows what a pain in the butt you are.
Q:Okay but you're still not telling my why it's bad for her to do it but okay for someone like Biden to.
A: Well that's the thing, the nature of the job means really different constraints. Being Vice President basically automatically makes you a joke (see here, here, and here) so Biden didn't have much of reputation to lose. It could have been a bigger problem if he was say running for president where he has to be taken more seriously...which of course has always kind of been his political problem, because of the job and stuff like "big deal."
Q: So she's doomed?
A: No, it probably didn't hurt her reputation in the long run (unlike Ocasio-Cortez's ill fated war which very well may have) but it was still (probably) just a dumb thing to do.
