Well the first round the Democratic debates just happened last week and so I thought it would be a good time to check in on where things stand at this point in the 2020 election cycle.
Obviously there hasn't been a lot of dramatic upheaval over the weekend, but still I think there have been enough changes to justify an update. Especially since we probably won't see a whole lot of changes until the next round of debates at the end of July.
One non-candidate trend that I thought was important to acknowledge was just how popular these debates were with over 18 million people watching the second one on TV or online (the first debate had about 15 million viewers). It's hard to tell what sort of effects this popularity might have on either the nomination or the general election in 2020, but this overwhelming level of engagement by Democrats seems like a notable part of the 2020 election cycle.
The conventional wisdom appears to be that Biden had a pretty lousy night and a number of other candidate, especially Kamala Harris, did much better. Rather than parse those takes, I'd rather focus on developments since then with a focus on where party actors seem to be lining up. With that in mind I'll use the tier system I've used before to try and rank where I think things stand.
Tier 1:
Joe Biden: While I'll agree he had a pretty bad night and his poll numbers have gone down a bit, folks he's still the front runner. Looking at the RCP poll aggregator he remains about 12 points above Bernie, his nearest rival and 13.5 above Harris and Warren his next closet challengers. To be sure that's a pretty big hit from where he was just a few weeks ago, but he's still very much in the lead. But while poll respondents are fickle, party actors tend to stick with their picks, and Biden remains in the lead with party actors picking up two major endorsements since the debate with Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms backing him. This puts him at 102 points in 538's endorsement tracker compared to his closet rival Kamala Harris at 75, a small but very real lead. Moreover Biden's endorsement remain the most diverse of the whole field both in terms of types of supporters and also geography. He's in a weaker position than he was at the start of June but he remains the front runner, at least for now.
Tier 2A:
Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris: Harris and Warren remain in the best position to beat Biden. Harris' widely praised debate performance has helped her shoot up since then to basically tie Warren at around 13.5% in RCP's poll aggregator. Meanwhile a wave a positive news coverage has helped Warren go up in the polls as well since the beginning of June. If there is a major difference between the two at this point I'd say that Harris is much stronger in endorsements. Over June she picked up six more House Members, only one of which was from California showing a broader geographical base of support that she's sported in the past. With Warren one thing that strikes me as a real weak point is how despite the weeks of glowing coverage in the media and a well received debate performance she hasn't added a single new endorsement to 538's tracker since mid-May. Seriously, why can't Warren get other Democrats to support her?
Tier 2B:
Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker: These are the two candidates who strike mes as being most likely to be able to make the jump to Warren and Harris's level, but each has some pretty major weaknesses. Booker remains stuck in the doldrums in polling at around 3% despite a well received debate performance. However Booker does have an impressive list of supporters from New Jersey giving him an important base and I suppose he could spiral up sometime in future just like Harris recently did, so don't write him off. Mayor Pete has a different set of problems, his polling numbers have come down some and he hasn't been able to line up much party support but he's still doing better than Booker in the polls and raised an impressive $24 million this quarter which could easily keep him viable through Iowa. His big problem right now is something close to a total lack of support from non-white people. See this recent Quinnipiac University poll that has him at 0% among black voters. There's just no way he can win if he can't fix this, but the good news is he has time to try.
Tier 2C:
Bernie Sanders: This may seem weird since I'm moving the number two guy in the polls down but I really think Bernie is in trouble. Over at CNN Harry Enten does a good job of laying out some of the grim news in recent polling for Bernie (despite almost universal name recognition he's going down and especially weak in Iowa these days, a state he almost won four years ago). But I think the problems are even bigger for him than that. The fact of the matter is he's running a "factional candidacy" where he basically has this chunk of the party dead set behind him and he's trying to take over the whole party with it George McGovern style. The problem is Democrats seem to still want someone who can build a big tent coalition style campaign and that really leave him SOL. While I suppose he could still try to reboot his campaign, his debate performance, which was basically just him giving his 2016 stump speech over and over again in response to every question, just makes me really doubtful of this.
Tier 3A:
Julian Castro, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar: This is basically the group of people I think have the best chance of being able to make the jump into the second tier. Each has their own problems and none is doing particular well in polls but they seem like plausible contenders if they get some lucky breaks so they have that going from them. Klobuchar and Castro have the very real problem of needing better polling to qualify for the September debate, but Castro was able to parlay a strong debate performance into fundraising and Klobuchar has a strong base of Minnesota endorsements. Beto is in a bit of a different boat as he already had a major surge in press coverage and polling only to see it fade away, but lighting can always strike twice.
Tier 3B:
Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock: In another cycle either of these could have been plausible contenders but they don't seem to be going anywhere. Then again both are successful governors and have at least some party support in terms of endorsements so I suppose they have a chance to try to get things going over the summer, but they remain pretty far behind Tier 3A.
Tier 3C:
Kristen Gillibrand, Michael Bennet: This is basically the tier for 3B people with even bigger problems. With Bennet it's a total lack of endorsements or polling support despite a well received debate performance among some journalists. I don't know what's gone wrong for Gillibrand but her incredible weaknesses in polling and endorsements after months of going full bore makes her seem pretty likely to drop out soon if things don't change.
Tier 4:
Delaney, Gabbard, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, de Blasio, Hickenlooper: This basically the tier of Representatives going nowhere, a mayor of New York City going nowhere, and a former popular governor who's campaign is falling apart while also going nowhere. They are really unlikely to win at this point, but I suppose anything is possible in the Age of Trump, (after all Castro was able to escape Tier 4 with a good debate performance by my reckoning!)
Tier 5:
Everyone else: This is everyone else, they are running for some reason.
(Special case: Stacey Abrams: If she did run I'd guess I'd put her in Tier 4 at this point. If she was considering running for president her decision to sit things out until the fall was a major blunder with the race having moved on and resources being captured by other campaigns all summer long. I also doubt she could qualify for any debates at this point, a lesson Steve Bullock learned after he decided to take a wait and see approach. Finally, I suspect her decision
to frame her choice in terms of what's best for her rather than the
country or voters wouldn't serve her well if she did run. Sure didn't
work for Beto.)
I'll check back in after the second round of debates!
