As I see it the race remains kind of typical of past wide open Democratic cycles like 2004, 1992, and 1988. That is the Democrats started out with a large field of perhaps 40 people and it's slowly but surely been winnowed down to 15 as of right now. Oh there's been some bumps along the way, a vanity gazillionaire candidacy here, a "why-are-you-getting-in-now?" there, 10,001 media cycles about "gaffes". But from on a macro level it's more or less that things are proceeding pretty normally for the Democrats (unlike how they did for the Republicans in the 2016 cycle).
With that said I like the idea of differentiating between "officially winnowed" that is when a candidate says they are done (like Harris did this week) and "functionally winnowed" where a candidate can no longer win but are still "running". As an example, Montana governor Steve Bullock was "functionally winnowed" not long after he announced because he went nowhere in terms of polling, fundraising, or endorsements. Meanwhile Cory Booker was functionally winnowed at some point over the last few months by my reckoning as he failed to breakthrough to voters and thus appears to be on his way to not qualifying for the December debate, arguably his last chance to make his case to a large audience.
Accordingly I will follow my model of ranking the candidates by tiers and then go through the remaining candidates who I'd consider "functionally winnowed" and what's going on with them.
Tier 1A:
Joe Biden: Folks he remains the frontrunner. Despite never ending "gaffes", despite a progressive press that often mocks him as a buffoon, despite being almost as old as Bernie, despite all the predictions that he couldn't win (see here, here, here, and here) he remains the front runner. That is to say he remains a comfortably 10 or more points ahead of his closes rival Bernie Sanders in Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll tracker and continues to lead comfortably in endorsements, two metrics that historically get increasingly predictive as we get closer to Iowa. Moreover his multi-racial coalition of older, more working class supporters don't seem to care about the "gaffes" or the negative coverage he gets. This doesn't mean he's going to win, a lot could still happen, but he's in the lead. A good comparison in terms of Democratic nomination politics might be Walter Mondale in the 1984 cycle, but in a slightly weaker position. But then again Mondale won the nomination.
Tier 1B:
Elizabeth Warren: November was a bad month for Warren, she's fallen over 12 points in RCP's national tracker and her endorsements have slowed to a crawl (she got just two House Reps in 538's tracker was in November). But even so that puts her in third place nationally in the polls and second place in endorsements which are real strengths. And she has a vast army of progressive donors and activists backing her up. In other works she's taken some steps back recently but I still see her as someone who could possibly put together a big tend coalition and win in the end.
Tier 2A:
Pete Buttigieg: Pete's had a great run of polling as of late shooting up to 11 percent nationally in RCP's tracker. That's a real accomplishment, but the reason I'd leave him out of the top tier is that he remains incredibly weak in two key sectors. For one he seems to have little to no support among non-white voters in general and black voters in particular. The reality in today's Democratic Party is you simply can not be the nominee without significant support from black voters, the last one able to do it was Dukakis in 1988, and a lots changed since then. Secondly he's just really weak with Democratic Party actors. In 538's endorsement tracker he's at 25 points compared to Biden's 161. Both of these are major hurdles to overcome and I remain skeptical he can do it in the remaining two months before Iowa. But again lot can still change.
Tier 2B:
Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar: I remain quite bearish on Bernie's chances. I suppose anything is possible but nothing I've seen since I last wrote about this in July has fundamentally changed my view of him as a factional candidate running in a party that values coalition building and big-tentism. He has caught up to Amy Klobuchar in endorsements, but he also had a heart attack, which I guess is rude to point out but always struck me as a big deal. Again anything is possible, but I personally just don't see it, especially since he remains at 16 or so percent nationally despite running nonstop for five years and having higher than 90 percent name recognition. Klobuchar is kind of the opposite in that she is way behind everyone else in national polling, but has shown and uptick in Iowa and is poised to possibly surge. Will this happen? Well the door is closing for her, and the December debate might be her last chance, but Iowa is a strange place and something could still happen.
Tier 3:
Michael Bloomberg: I really doubt Michael Bloomberg will be the nominee. He's spent part of his career as a Republican. He's given to Republicans as recently as 2016. His track record in New York City is admirable to many, but not so much among key Democratic constituencies. He's also not contesting the early states. Having said that he has more money than God and apparently wants to spend it all on television advertising. Can he win? Again Trump shows anything is possible, but I doubt it.
And that's kind of it, everyone else strikes me as being "functionally winnowed", I run through what's going on bullet point style:
- Michael Bennet: I guess he really hates being in the Senate and so wants to be doing this for a while longer, but I don't see him winning (if he ever was a plausible nominee).
- Cory Booker: A once promising candidate, it just didn't work out for him as he's never broken out. Apparently he's going to stick around and give speeches about "what it all means" but yeah he's done, especially since he has his day job to get back to.
- Julian Castro: Like Booker he's toast but also wants to stick around and highlight various issues and causes and such. Good for him, but it's over and that he only has a platform because he's still running and that can't last forever.
- John Delaney: To paraphrase David Karol: "He's a wealthy retiree, this is his hobby now." I have no idea when he'll formally drop out, but he's finished.
- Tulsi Gabbard: I have no idea what's going on here. Maybe auditioning for a sweet gig as a talking head on Fox News bashing Democrats all day? Maybe she'll have to settle for Russia Today? Who knows, who cares.
- Deval Patrick: Maybe there's a new type of winnowing here? Let's called it the unwinnowed, that is someone who runs in the "invisible primary", gets winnowed, then comes back from the dead like a zombie for more! Interesting sub-field of candidates to study I guess, but yeah he's not going to win.
- Tom Steyer: Basically John Delaney, but with much, much more money.
- Marrianne Williamson: Selling books.
- Andrew Yang: Yang is only famous and only has a platform because of running, so probably won't be leaving anytime soon, but he's also not going to win.
